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This is spreading fast and it looks like it's going to be a pandemic. Opinion?
 

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I find that I have enough real things to worry about, that I don’t go looking for others.

But this has the potential to become a significant problem.

My wife’s job involves close contact with people coming from China, so it’s in the back of my mind. But shortly it won’t matter so much if they come from China, Japan, S. Korea, or parts of our own countries. Those from Asia seem to be actually quite good at self-isolation and protecting others if they think that they may have been exposed. So it’s likely the salesman who just came back from a large conference in Vegas, travelling back through LAX, who shakes your hand and has a coffee with you, whom you might need to fear more! People are contagious before they are symptomatic, which is a problem for control.

I was speaking with a colleague who has family about 100 miles from Wuhan. There are 600 infections in that city. As of Friday, some 36,000 in Wuhan (more like 40,000 now). In many areas of that province at least, the streets are ghost towns. But in a way we’re lucky that China could clamp down and essentially stop all movement in the area, despite the lunar new year (which, in China, includes the largest human mass migration on the planet). And people obeyed. Imagine what would have happened if the government told Americans that the had to stay put for Thanksgiving. Wouldn’t ever happen.

At the moment, I’m more worried that I cannot get goods out of China right now and don’t know for how much longer. And I’m hopeful that the disease dies out much like SARS did some 17 years ago. But there is no guarantee it will.
 

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So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
 

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So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
I think this post is an indication of how much information and misinformation is shared and creates alarm. In short the flu and Corona Virus are both causing illness and death. Whether there is a concern that the Corona Virus is worse for some reason or not is what needs to be discussed by medical professionals.
Did you know that the flu epidemic of 1918 caused more deaths than all those killed in WW-I in all nations combined. They never found out what caused it or how to treat it....and were worried it would return....but never did.
 

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Not in the least.
You’re correct, RK. My great grandfather died in 1919 from Spanish Flu. How ironic that two of his sons, my two grand uncles, survived Gallipoli and the Western Front in WW1. My grand father had enlisted but the Armistice was signed before his ship departed. A very lucky rarity that all brothers survived the conflict, but their father was felled, ‘safe’ at home in Sydney, by a bug. That Spanish Flu killed 20 million people.
Edit: Now they say over 50 to 100million died from the Spanish Flu. That 20million figure must only have been Westerners.
 

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Economic downturn from trade war with US made it convenient to thin the herd in China.
The curfew and clampdown on society was effective at quelling protests in Hong Kong.
Worried? Only that the most populous nation is run by tyrannical psychopaths.
Next? China announce the cure, and the price of it $$$.
 

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So far, the new coronavirus, dubbed COVID-19, has led to more than 75,000 illnesses and 2,000 deaths, primarily in mainland China. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has already caused an estimated 26 million illnesses, 250,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
No question, flu is the bigger killer. But this one was only let out of the box 2 months ago, and although influenza outbreaks vary by some degree every year, they are roughly described at Influenza A and Influenza B. A is by far the bigger killer, and variants like H1N1 are not to be trifled with.

But we have some natural immunity to the flu after being exposed to it all of our lives. There are also immunizations that seek to protect from the predicted annual variants. Even if you don’t get a flu shot, there is some herd immunity because others around you have (the staff looking after you in hospital, your co-workers, etc, help protect you by having been immunized).

Covid-19 seems to have just learned to transmit human to human. So, unless you’ve had some unique exposure prior to this, your immune system doesn’t know how to defend you. And a cure or vaccine is likely a year off, although scientists around the globe are working on it. Australian researchers had sequenced it within weeks, which is a head start that we did not have in 1918 or even in 2003.

Fortunately, somehow these viruses often seem to die out on their own, owing in part to some good controls on our part to limit their spread. SARS and MERV for example, left the world stage without a human-induced cure or vaccine. But they have necessitated health care protocols such as isolation and reporting, which protect more of us on every subsequent similar outbreak. Unfortunately, it’s front line health care workers who suffer the highest casualty rates in outbreaks like this, as they work to care for the affected and try to prevent spread.
 

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Discussion Starter #9
The problem is the incubation periods. It's quite long for this virus, that's what makes it dangerous.
 

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Hey, if it must end now, at least we had to opportunity to drive a 4C in our lives. But still, all the best to you guys!!
  • No intentions of meeting my maker, shuffling off this mortal coil and joining the choir invisible just yet...Though hoping also not to tempt fate. You've got to be incredibly unlucky to come into contact with someone who has it outside of China....unlikely though not impossible.
 

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Think you don’t have to worry, but have to be cautious for yourself and responsible to your community as well. Being a strong male that can survive the flu without problem doesn’t mean younger, elder and weaker people around will.

In the meanwhile, Corona has reached Italy, so the distance is closing in...

But in all honesty, I’m more worried when going for a trackday.
 

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I was just in Beijing and Hong Kong over the last 3 weeks. They were ghost towns.
im not worried. Maybe I should have been or should be, but I’m not.
How long has it been since you’ve been back? More than two weeks and without symptoms you’re sweet. (y) Nothing to worry about other than lifes’ usual things.
 

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How long has it been since you’ve been back? More than two weeks and without symptoms you’re sweet. (y) Nothing to worry about other than lifes’ usual things.
Almost 3 weeks from Beijing. 8 days from Hong Kong.
I don’t worry but I do agree with the idea that I do have an obligation to be cautious of those more vulnerable. I agree 100%. I did not attend my fathers 87th birthday days after returning from Beijing. The elderly are among the ones at highest risk.
 

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You're not immune to the
But we have some natural immunity to the flu after being exposed to it all of our lives.
No. You have a healthy immune system, which reacts and develops an immunity once it identifies the virus strain. The immune system response is the part that hurts. Viruses mutate, so you get colds over and over again, because you get new strains, which your immune system reacts to like a rookie every damn time.

What is underestimated and not discussed enough is the total impact on your body when you get a serious viral or bacterial infection and beat it. It affects organs, your life span and some other things, so you're better off not getting sick.

The flu should make you bedridden and convert from atheism to any religion with a god willing to help you and your desperate pleas for help. When you recover, the entirety of your life and health is permanently affected.

The key to preventing pandemic is overreaction and mild panic at the first signs. No one should be saying it's nothing to worry about. Fear and a very instant and reactive approach to new diseases and fear of pandemic are evolutionary advantages to humans. It's why other potential pandemics were avoided. The media comparing every new potential pandemic to ones that never happened and pausing to remind us that they must've been grossly exaggerated is like saying, "Why do you need dandruff shampoo; you don't have dandruff!?!"

We need to take these potential pandemics as the life threatening and potential catastrophes they are, so we can look back on them and realize they never became historical pandemics and catastrophes.
 
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