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Discussion Starter #81
The industry has embraced the electrification because there are no longer coming fumes out of a car, and TADAA, we have a clean product.
Half of the small dust coming from a car is from tires, brakes, ... A car that weighs more (read with batteries) produces more small dust of this type.

And then there's the energy needed to move the car forward. The electricity or hydrogen gas has to come from somewhere!
Electricity can be made with nuclear, gas, wind, solar, ...

Burning gas to make electricity and then distribute it through a grid that looses 3 to 4 times the energy that is finally used doubtfully brings you the ecological gains over burning it right away.
Nuclear works without CO2, but brings a whole new problem of pollution we can not deal with, requires the construction of tons of new plants, and is limited in its resources.

So we end up with wind and solar. I strongly believe these are still the way to go, but not if they are over-subsidized, and e.g. panels are transported from china with a ship running on pure oil!!
And even if we use clear electricity for driving cars, it's not that we have any in surplus at the moment!

We should start with switching all electricity production to renewable sources before even using more of it.
We will have to use transportation (aviation above all) less and less and look for way to use less energy in any sort of way.
We have to move faster, before cars are completely demonized.

If we succeed in that, and get people that don't like to drive from the roads and when needed driving an electric shared car, there will be a recreational use of petrol cars possible.
Or as someone once told me: "The last drop of fuel will be used in a Ferrari." Just let us hope it's an Alfa Romeo instead ;-)

The best way to think of electric cars is like "sewage".

You do a logger, and a pipe transports the dirty waste miles away from where you live -- making everyone's local environment much healthier.

Electric cars do the same. The dirty waste (power generation) is generated miles away from where you live. No more dirty diesel-soot spewing in your face as you walk to work.

Of course, the waste is still there. But humans are morons, and nobody cares if they cannot see it :)

One fly in the ointment for electric cars is the finite resource of lithium. If all the world's billion vehicles electrified overnight, the world would run out of lithium in under a decade. There remain credible questions about whether the world and solar system have enough lithium (and recycled lithium) for batteries to be a longterm (sustainable) alternative to oil.
 

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The best way to think of electric cars is like "sewage".

You do a logger, and a pipe transports the dirty waste miles away from where you live -- making everyone's local environment much healthier.

Electric cars do the same. The dirty waste (power generation) is generated miles away from where you live. No more dirty diesel-soot spewing in your face as you walk to work.

Of course, the waste is still there. But humans are morons, and nobody cares if they cannot see it :)

One fly in the ointment for electric cars is the finite resource of lithium. If all the world's billion vehicles electrified overnight, the world would run out of lithium in under a decade. There remain credible questions about whether the world and solar system have enough lithium (and recycled lithium) for batteries to be a longterm (sustainable) alternative to oil.
Your rationale is wrong in the sense that the “waste” is much reduced as power plants are much more efficient than car engines AND you’re assuming that all electricity is “dirty”, which is not the case (hydro, nuclear, solar, gas, etc) Regarding lithium, you have a point but unlike oil, it’s recyclable.
 

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Your rationale is wrong in the sense that the “waste” is much reduced as power plants are much more efficient than car engines AND you’re assuming that all electricity is “dirty”, which is not the case (hydro, nuclear, solar, gas, etc) Regarding lithium, you have a point but unlike oil, it’s recyclable.
“Recycling your oil is a great way to help the environment. Your used motor oil can be cleaned and fully reused as a fuel oil. ... With higher-intensity processing, it can be re-refined back into lubricants at about a 60 percent yield – 1 gallon of used motor oil provides about 2.5 quarts of lubricating base oil.”
 

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There have been some interesting merged being planned, and though each had their advantages, none came through.

But now they all come to a very sad ending:
https://www.motor1.com/news/379538/psa-fca-merger-plan-announced/
FCA is merging with PSA, a manufacturer where Alfa simply isn’t gaining anything with. PSA builds Citroën, Peugeot and Opel. All frontwheel drive, pseudo-SUV, high volume, low quality, zero profit boxes. Exactly the opposite of what Marchionne was working to. PSA sales tumbled in the last years as well. This merger is all and only about fiscality. Biggest proof: seat will be in tax-friendly Netherlands. Where’s the French Governments complaint now??
Even if Alfa Romeo and Maserati would become the premium brand of the group, they would still need to share the worst handling platforms and dullest engines.
I hope Alfa Romeo and Maserati get some in the coming weeks. Otherwise the days of fun are over...
 

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Hard to know which is worse. Alfa Romeo suffering under poor FCA dealership networks or AR with a different combined owner. I agree though. Nothing looks good right now.
 

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The merger can only help the future prospects of both companies, consolidation is necessary and inevitable in the industry. When Carlos Tavares took over PSA it was nearly bankrupt and now has some of the best margins in the game, he'll be the CEO of the combined company. Every auto industry analyst I've seen comments from views it as a win.
 

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"In Carlos Tavares, Fiat Family Finds Heir to Marchionne Legacy
By
Tommaso Ebhardt, Bloomberg
October 31, 2019, 5:23 AM EDT
  • PSA Group chief to lead Fiat-Peugeot powerhouse after merger
  • Agnelli scion Elkann seeks to fulfil goals of his late mentor."
    It's a sad day that FCA doesn't think it can survive without a merger with a weaker European automaker. Sice the CEO will be Carlos Tavares he was the main executive that FCA wanted running operations. Seems like he has saved Peugeot/Opel through cost cutting as Marchionne saved Fiat/Chrysler. Only time will tell, but not good news as to what we can expect to happen here in the US with dealers and sales. i guess better than Chinese getting FCA.
 

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How is this move bad? It's not. It's just not as good as some dream mergers could be... and I'm calling the other mergers 'dream mergers' because that's what they am't to.

Without size and scale, you're inefficient, you lack leverage, influence and supply chains suffer, etc, etc.

This will hurt Italy, because they will be reduced to making Ferraris... and that is it. Making anything else there is a death sentence, thanks to dysfunctional labor unions and management.

Ask me, the imaginary chairman, whether I am confident in success as the 4th largest automaker or some marginal one plodding along.
 

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i guess better than Chinese getting FCA.
A Chinese investor company owns 14% of Puegot. :(
As does the French government. :( :(


How is this move bad? It's not. It's just not as good as some dream mergers could be... and I'm calling the other mergers 'dream mergers' because that's what they am't to.

Without size and scale, you're inefficient, you lack leverage, influence and supply chains suffer, etc, etc.

This will hurt Italy, because they will be reduced to making Ferraris... and that is it. Making anything else there is a death sentence, thanks to dysfunctional labor unions and management.

Ask me, the imaginary chairman, whether I am confident in success as the 4th largest automaker or some marginal one plodding along.
Is making a car in France any better than in Italy? Doubt it.


At least Puegot has a pretty successful motorsport history - give them their due.

Puegot will want US distribution and FCA will want China access. That's what each was looking for in this merger.
 

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One article I saw said that the area FCA was lacking was EV technology which (especially Chrysler) was lagging GM and Ford. Evidently the new marriage will provide that missing tech. Today the only way to survive is to get partners to share the engineering development load, some parts, and have access to more capital. That may mean cars become more "vanilla" so that is a sad result.
 

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Anything that involves the Chinese regime as an owner isn’t good in my opinion. In that case I’d rather have no Alfa Romeo at all. From a business point of view this deal is probably great, but Alfa is dead.
 

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Is making a car in France any better than in Italy? Doubt it.

At least Puegot has a pretty successful motorsport history - give them their due.

Puegot will want US distribution and FCA will want China access. That's what each was looking for in this merger.
Well, yeah (I was gonna say, Well, duh)

On the France-Italy comparo: Well, as a proportion of industry and impact, it will be worse on Italy.

The point in time at which 'China Made' no longer means 'poor quality' is just about upon us... but the stigma will take generations to erase. It's our go-to thought around the world. Not saying you're saying that, but tell anyone an intention is to move X to China, and the reaction is, "Well there goes X!"

Meanwhile, back at the barn in China, the industries have become incredibly modern and modular.
 

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Well, yeah (I was gonna say, Well, duh)

On the France-Italy comparo: Well, as a proportion of industry and impact, it will be worse on Italy.

The point in time at which 'China Made' no longer means 'poor quality' is just about upon us... but the stigma will take generations to erase. It's our go-to thought around the world. Not saying you're saying that, but tell anyone an intention is to move X to China, and the reaction is, "Well there goes X!"

Meanwhile, back at the barn in China, the industries have become incredibly modern and modular.
Definitely "made in China" doesn't have the stigma that it used to.
Almost any Apple product, a huge proportion of modern electronics, etc. prove that.
Unfortunately, there are also crooks in the export market - We've found that Chinese steel, flooring and drywall are to be avoided at all cost - steel beams and manufactured pieces that do not meet our testing, laminate flooring and drywall that emits formaldehyde or other noxious vapours.

The worst part, for investors, is getting hard currency back out of China. And since investment is required in order to access that market, the funds are basically committed to stay there.
 

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Discussion Starter #99
The global car industry will shrink by -50% by 2050, as cars electrify and autonomize.

Fewer cars, fewer parts, fewer drivers.

Only the biggest (VW) or best (Ferrari) will survive.

Alfa is neither big nor best, so the outlook is grim.

Alfa is going to have to fork away, beyond cars, to something like home robots or micro-mobility.
 

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One article I saw said that the area FCA was lacking was EV technology which (especially Chrysler) was lagging GM and Ford. Evidently the new marriage will provide that missing tech. Today the only way to survive is to get partners to share the engineering development load, some parts, and have access to more capital. That may mean cars become more "vanilla" so that is a sad result.
Indeed, the new Peugeot e208 looks way better than the Nissan Leaf or Chevy Bolt. At the very least, this will mean FCA can soon stop buying extortion credits from Tesla. It will be interesting if they rebadge for North America or just add the Peugeot brands. Personally, I think they should keep the Peugeot brand in Europe but do a badge swap to make them Chryslers in NA. Chrysler doesn't exactly have much product anymore. The e208 could be an electric "Chrysler e100" the Midsized and gorgeous Peugeot 508 sedan and wagons could become a new Chrysler 200. The 300 could be replaced by a longer version of the Alfa Giulia platform. The new SUVs could also become Chryslers, like the new 2008 could become a Chrysler 1000 SUV.
 
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